Projecting Win Totals

Let me start by saying.. Thank you! We appreciate you listening to the show and stopping by the site! Today I’m going to go over win projections for the NFL.

Why do we even project win totals? I think this is a fun exercise before the season for a few reasons: 

1. We know that Fantasy players score more points when they get into the endzone. We also know that the NFL only counts a “W” for the team that scores more points each week. So on a very simple level, I want to know which teams might be putting their players in the best situations to win, and therefore accumulate more Fantasy Points. 

2. The next reason is for sizing up the players on the teams with the lowest win total projections. Obviously, opportunity is one of the main factors for predicting Fantasy success. JSN is an excellent example from last season. You’ve got to ask yourself if the player on a team with less wins projected will be such an amazing talent to be presented with a surplus opportunity (relative to league averages). 

3. Lastly.. We can also size up our win projections versus the Vegas lines for betting purposes!

With all the analysis about the New England Patriots being a team that won more games than they should have based on the softer schedule they faced.. I’m fully invested in this exercise this season! We didn’t have the exact NFL schedule until May, but we knew which teams would play each other as soon as the regular season finished. Why does this matter? Because where each team finishes in their respective Divisions has a lot to do with who they’ll be facing next season. Quick rundown? There will be Divisions that play every team in another Division, as well as every team within their own Division. But there are 3 games for each team in which they will face the team from another Division that finished in the same position the prior season.

Seems like a stretch, huh? Let me point out some of the biggest differences I’ve been able to find this season. I’ll use the reasons listed above to give you an example for each! I’d like to start with the team I have projected to win the most games in the 2026 season (at 10.75 wins) - my wife’s Detroit Lions. Everyone in the NFC North will have to play teams from the AFC East and NFC South. To start.. That’s 2 games against MIA & NYJ in the AFC East, and 4 games against what’s widely regarded as the softest Division with the NFC South. When you look at the dissimilar opponents, though, that’s where you see the extra wiggle room. As the team that finished 4th in the NFC North last season, that means they will GET to play ARI in the NFC West (instead of 3 of the top teams in the NFL), TEN in the AFC South, and NYG in the NFC East (avoiding HOU, PHI, and even JAX Defenses). The Bears, who finished 1st in the Division last season, will play SEA, JAX, and PHI for comparison. That’s a HUGE difference! Could be just the incentive you needed to smash the Draft button on Jameson Williams vs Rome Odunze.

How about a nugget from a team with a lower Win Prediction? Let me present my case for Garrett Wilson. Very few people will debate that he’s an amazing WR in the NFL.. But he plays for a team that many will debate has a realistic chance at winning a majority of their football games. The optimism I have around Wilson this year is that he may finally have a QB who is willing to wait longer than 2 seconds to throw the football, at a distance further than 10 yards downfield... And at a higher rate than any of his teammates! The additions of Sadiq and Cooper in the NFL Draft may have even helped my argument because he’s being drafted in the 4th Round sometimes. That’s a bet I’m willing to make when looking at the short list of players that might end up with a 30%+ Target Share.. I’m here to remind you that Geno Smith’s interceptions are not to be counted against Wilson!

What about a team to bet on? The team with the greatest difference between my Win Prediction Rankings and the Vegas lines is the Saints. While they should have a very difficult schedule this season due to matchups with the NFC North and AFC North.. They still finished 4th in their Division last season. I gotta assume they win at least 1 of those games against the Browns (@ home), and probably 1 more game that you can chalk up to the amazing competitiveness of the NFL. The Vegas line is tied for the 5th lowest total in the League at 6.5 wins. That means we only need 5 other wins in their remaining 9 games. They have 6 games against their fellow NFC South rivals, and I honestly think they have at least a 50% chance in every one of those games. Plus, as they finished 4th in their Division last season, their remaining 3 games are against ARI, LV, and NYG. Do I think they’ll win the Super Bowl? No. But I have them tied for 19th on my Win Prediction Rankings - at 8.75 wins, and Vegas has them tied for 25th - at 6.5 wins. I’ll bet on that 2+ win difference in our Projections!

Well that’s a good preview of our Win Prediction Rankings for the 2026 season. Tune into the show if you want to hear us catch back up, and get started on our offseason schedule! Plus, Eli and Jimmy are there to provide some great insights of their own.

We’re almost to Draft Season! Thanks again.. See you soon for QB Ranks!

Peace and Love